2007--2008 year bull sea, creating a sea of ​​high-yield energy industry, after a few years to digest all of this highly productive phase. Who was first to complete the process of digestion capacity, which we discussed this issue.

Long-term: if you add drop ship crash norm, Cargo earliest of supply and demand balance

From the demand side, the container shipping and bulk cargo demand fluctuations flexibility, generally maintained 2-3 times the global GDP growth, while the growth rate will remain a tanker times the global GDP growth rate of less. We estimate 2010--2012 年 Cargo capacity growth was 8%, 7%, 6%; remained synchronized with demand growth. 2010--2012 年 bulk capacity growth was 10%, 15% and 12%, the overall state of the oversupply; 2010--2012 Tanker industry capacity growth of 1%, 7% and 4% in 2011 tanker freight rates rise there is a certain pressure. Top 5 Cargo ship owners control the market share of all capacity nearly 40 percent; the top 20 shipowners control capacity in the market share of nearly 80%; while the top five bulk shipowners control capacity in the market accounted for 28%; while the top five giant ship East to control the market share of only 15% capacity.

Short-term: in the fourth quarter fell Cargo freight, bulk, tanker freight rates rise

After the season, the fourth quarter is expected to be somewhat lower volume of container freight rates will fluctuate, but the volatility of autonomous control capacity depends on the magnitude of the owner. With previous cycles a significant difference this cycle, the owner tasted deceleration, idle capacity sweetness, though at the expense of the cost of turnover, but the overall level of profitability can be improved. The risk is that a double dip of the economy.

Inland Waterways: the competitive environment incremental improvements

In March, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Transport has issued notice "the Yangtze River ship standardization subsidy fund management approach". Recent rumors that the introduction of inland navigation revitalization plan. Inland Navigation supporting policies that in the context of the transfer to the mainland Chinese industry background, will bring long-term incremental Yangtze river transport. But the overall low level of inland waterways, navigation capability is also poor. The effect of policies to support the inland shipping is mainly reflected in: (1) waterway, ports, docks and other shipping facilities improved; (2) industry concentration, improve industry competition order. These effects are reflected in progressive; rather abrupt in.